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Fundamentals February 4, 2013


Nik's Diary
The Indian market is expected to open flat today with a positive bias, mirroring SGX Nifty which is trading marginally in the grain. Most of the Asian markets are trading in the positive zone with gains in the range of 0.3% to 1.3%.  US markets rose higher on Friday buoyed by expectations of a mild recovery in the economy and hopes that the Federal Reserve would continue with loose monetary policy to support the growth. European  markets too rose on Friday, tracking positive news from US and improvement in PMI for non manufacturing sector reported by China for January. Key benchmark indices in India dropped in choppy trade after the results of a private survey showed that manufacturing output expanded at its slowest pace in three months in January 2013 as new orders grew at a weak pace and as power outages continued to hurt industrial activity. Sensex and Nifty sliding to the three week closing low.

Cigarette packs may show nicotine levels
In what would bring Indian cigarette companies on a par with their global peers, the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India ( FSSAI) has proposed to make it mandatory for companies to specify the amount of nicotine and tar on cigarette packs. FSSAI officials told Business Standard the authority would soon issue a notification in this regard. Citing the absence of adequate research facilities to verify the amount of nicotine and tar in cigarettes, companies in India have resisted the move for some time. The Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products Act 2003, which regulates trade, as well as advertisement of cigarettes and other tobacco-related products, has a provision for declaration of cigarette contents. However, owing to the lack of research laboratories, the government hadn’t notified the rule. “This anomaly will now be corrected,” said FSSAI officials. Six tobacco research laboratories were being set up in Chandigarh, Gujarat, Noida, Ghaziabad, Chennai and Kolkata at a cost of Rs 57 crore, the officials said, adding the World Health Organization would help establish these. The Tobacco Institute of India, an industry body, did not respond to a mail seeking comment. Healthy industry officials said earlier, manufacturers had resisted the move, as they felt when consumers saw the amount of nicotine and tar in cigarettes, business would be hit. While nicotine is addictive, tar can cause cancer. Health experts say the amount of nicotine and tar in Indian cigarettes is above the global permissible levels of one mg and 10 mg a cigarette, respectively. Indian cigarettes contain about 13-14 mg of tar and 1.3-1.8 mg of nicotine. Experts add besides putting in place a system to determine the amount of nicotine and tar in cigarettes, FSSAI would also have to determine the permissible levels of these substances, something not yet mandated by law. “Once that is done, it would go a long way in streamlining the process,” says Monika Arora, head (health promotion and tobacco control), Public Health Foundation of India. Indian manufacturers have graphic, as well as text warnings such as ‘smoking kills’ and ‘tobacco causes cancer’ on cigarette packs. Arora said the move to disclose the contents of a cigarette was the next step towards weaning smokers off the habit. At 274.9 million, India had the second-highest number of tobacco users after China (300.8 million), according to a study released last year by The Lancet, a medical journal. The number of smokers in India stands at 138 million. Analysts say this number is growing rapidly. Health experts have also pitched for other steps to check the growing tobacco consumption in the country. These include indicating the levels of carbon monoxide emitted when a cigarette is smoked. Source: Business Standard

Ultratech eyes ABG cement unit
India's largest cement maker, Aditya Birla Group-owned UltraTech Cement, has begun talks to purchase an incomplete 6.7-million-tonne cement plant in Gujarat owned by ABG Cement (ABGCL), a person with direct knowledge of the development said. "Executives of both UltraTech CementBSE 2.27 % and ABG had three rounds of negotiations," the same person said. Axis CapitalBSE -1.98 %, the investment banking arm of Axis BankBSE -0.05 %, is advising UltraTech on the deal. "We had some discussions in the past," a senior ABG official said. "The company is keen to complete the plant and grow its cement business." UltraTech has offered around 4,660 crore at $130 a tonne while ABG is believed to be asking for 5,008 crore at $156 a tonne. ABG owns two power plants located close to the main consumption markets of Maharashtra and Gujarat, which are growing at about 10%, and an incomplete jetty. "It is unlikely to get a premium for a non-operational plant that needs additional money to complete," says an analyst tracking the sector for more than 15 years. "The buyer needs to invest 550 crore to complete the plant." ABGCL is promoted by ABG Cement Holdco Pvt Ltd, or ABGHPL. IFCIBSE 4.76 % owns a small stake of 7.62%. ABGHPL is owned by Rishi Agarwal and family, the promoters of listed shipbuilder ABG ShipyardBSE -0.21 %. Rating agency CARE recently downgraded ABGCL's rating to B from BB- as its project faced cost and time overrun and increased reliance on debt. "The rating remains constrained by ABG Cement's residual project execution risk and limited experience of the promoters in the cement business," the agency said in a note published on January, 8, 2013, after reviewing the company's plans to raise 1,494-crore loan from banks. Until June, ABGCL had invested 2,525 crore in the cement plant, with debt of 1,544 crore and the balance using promoter funds and loans. The estimated cost of the project is 3,028 crore, and it is expected to be operational by the fourth quarter of 2013-14. "The ability of ABGCL to achieve the tie-up for required funds so as to commence operations to achieve optimum capacity utilisation, and timely fund infusion by the promoters to support debt servicing in the mean time remain the key rating sensitivities," CARE said. The deal, if concluded, will help UltraTech consolidate its position in Gujarat. It currently leads rival Gujarat Ambuja BSE 0.88 % Cements, owned by Swiss cement maker Holcim, with a 7-million-tonne capacity against GACL's 4.5 million tonnes. UltraTech can cut down its transportation cost by ferrying raw material and cement by sea. Source: Economic Times

Ceat registers a 23.8% yoy growth in tyre production in December 2012
As per the filing with the BSE, Ceat has registered a strong 23.8% yoy growth in tyre production in December 2012. The growth was led by a strong 42.7% and 22.8% yoy growth in the motorcycle and small commercial vehicle segments respectively. The passenger vehicle segment too registered a strong growth of 15.9% yoy during the month. The company’s radial facility at Halol continues to ramp-up and registered a growth of 109% yoy on a low base of last year. At `105, the stock is trading at attractive levels of 2.6x FY2014E earnings. Source: Angel Broking












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