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Fundamentals February 16, 2013


Food security scheme likely to get Rs 5,000 cr in Budget
The UPA-2 government’s most ambitious social security programme, the national food security scheme, is likely to get Rs 5,000 crore as initial allocation in the 2013-14 Budget, to be presented by Finance Minister P Chidambaram on February 28. The programme will start in 2013-14 and the Budget would provide this allocation, said officials in the know. “This sum has been kept aside for food security and will be different from the usual allocation of food subsidy,” an official said. The Food Security Bill, which seeks to provide legal entitlement for cheap grain to almost 67 per cent of the population, has been vetted by a standing committee of Parliament. The department of food and consumer affairs is preparing a Cabinet note for a revised Bill, likely to be moved in the Budget session. Officials estimate the yearly food subsidy at Rs 1,20,000 crore to Rs 1,40,000 crore, depending on the quantity of food allocated under the Bill. The Budget had provided for Rs 75,000 crore in 2012-13, but the requirement is said to have swelled to more than Rs 95,000 crore. In the 2013-14 Budget, the finance minister will try to strike a balance between various departments’ demands to rein in the fiscal deficit at 4.8 per cent of GDP from the 5.3 per cent estimated in the current financial year. The Bill, tabled in Parliament, aims to give legal entitlement for cheap grain to 75 per cent of the rural population and 50 per cent of the urban population. It has split beneficiaries into priority and general categories. Each priority beneficiary would get seven kg of grain a month, while a general category  beneficiary would get three to four kg. However, the standing committee of Parliament on food had recommended the categories be merged. Each beneficiary should get five kg of foodgrain a month at Rs 3 per kg for rice, Rs 2 a kg for wheat and Rs 1 per kg for coarse cereals, it had said. Officials said the first version of the Bill would have led to Rs 1,30,000-1,40,000 crore of food subsidy, while the parliamentary panel’s recommendations would result in an outgo of Rs 1,20,000 crore. The panel’s suggestions would mean a grain requirement of 50 million tonnes (mt), almost the same as that under the current Targeted Public Distribution System. But the subsidy bill will increase. The subsidy bill will go up due to a uniform lower price, against the differential pricing for below poverty line and above poverty line beneficiaries now. Had the first version of the Bill’s proposal been kept intact, the requirement would have been 70 mt. All these numbers exclude the eight mt required for welfare schemes such as the Mid-Day Meal programme. Lately, the food ministry made changes in the Bill to cover 90 per cent of the population in 13 states and 75 per cent in 250 identified districts. It was also proposed that the Antyodaya Anna Yojana targeting the poorest of the poor, be retained as it has been performing well. If these suggestions are incorporated, the government’s food bill could go up. Source: Business Standard

Markets trim losses, Auto and FMCG in positive zone


Benchmark indices have recovered from day's low and have turned flat led by renewed buying among Auto and FMCG shares. By 14:35, Sensex plunged by 12 points at 19,485, and the Nifty down 7 points at 5,889 levels. On the global front, Japan's Nikkei share average fell on Friday as investors pared exposure to exporters and banks while awaiting the weekend G20 meeting. A deepening recession in the euro zone also dragged down shares, and sentiment deteriorated in late trade on news that a conservative, former finance ministry bureaucrat is the leading candidate to head the Japanese central bank. The Nikkei closed down 1.2 percent at 11,173.83 after falling as much as 2.1 percent. Back home, BSE Realty and Oil & Gas indices have plunged by almost 2% followed by counters like Consumer Durable, Metal, Healthcare, IT, Power and PSU, all slumping by almost 1% each. Apart from FMCG, all the major BSE sectoral indices are trading in negative zone. Index heavyweight Reliance Inds has dropped by over 2%. According to reports, TCS today surpassed Reliance Industries to become the country's most valued company as the IT major's market capitalisation soared to over Rs 2.83 lakh crore on the back of a spurt in its share price. Dr Reddy’s Lab is the top Sensex loser, down over 3%. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch downgraded its rating on Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd to "neutral" from "buy", saying "a slight" increase in core profit estimates was being offset by a fading US drug pipeline and moderating growth. Metal shares like Tata Steel, JSPL and Hindalco have fallen between 1-2%. Auto shares like Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki and Hero Moto have declined between 0.4-2%. Tata Motors is trading marginally in green. Other notable losers include CIL, Infosys, Cipla, HUL and TCS. Among other shares, LIC Housing Finance is trading lower by 3% at Rs 244, extending its Thursday’s 6% fall, on reporting disappointing set of numbers for the third quarter ended December 31, 2012 (Q3). Meanwhile, BSE Midcap index plunged by 0.20% whereas BSE Smallcap index is down 0.98%. The market breadth in BSE ended unhealthy with 1,766 shares declining and 946 shares advancing. Source: Business Standard


 

Bharti Infratel hits new low on heavy volumes


Bharti Inftratel has dipped 4% to Rs 186 on BSE on back of heavy volumes. The stock opened at Rs 190 and hit a low of Rs 181.80, its lowest level since listing in last year. As many as a combined 1.15 million shares have already changed hands on the counter so far against an average around 0.50 million shares that were traded daily in past two weeks. The stock of India's leading provider of tower and related infrastructure has underperformed the market by falling 13% in past two weeks compared to 2% fall in benchmark Sensex. Bharti Infratel mobilized about Rs 4,200 crore via an initial public offering (IPO) to install new towers and upgrade and replace existing ones. The company had sold its shares in the IPO at Rs 220 per share, got listed on December 28, 2012.Source: Business Standard

 

Markets subdued, selling pressure visible across the board


Markets continue to trades on a subdued note in the noon deals on the back of selling pressure visible across the board. The Sensex is down 70 points at 19,427 and the 50-share Nifty has slipped 28 points to 5,869 levels. Meanwhile, the Asian markets are also trading on a subdued note  with investors turned cautious as weak euro zone growth data presaged the G20 meeting in this session and on Saturday in Moscow. Hang Seng was up 6 points at 19,434, Nikkei slipped 133 points to 11,173, Straits Times is down 12 points at 3,278 and the Seoul Composite was flat at 1,981. Back home, Dr Reddy's Labs is the top loser among the Sensex stocks, down 2% at Rs 1,839 after the Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded the stock to neutral with a target price of Rs 1,975 after dismal performance in the third quarter. Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto, Reliance Industries, Jindal Steel, Cipla, Maruti Suzuki, Coal India, Infosys,  Bharti Airtel and Wipro are also trading weaker by 1-1.6% each. On the other hand, Tata Power, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, NTPC, GAIL India, BHEL, ONGC and Sterlite Industries are among the notable gainers. All the sectoral indices are in the negative territory. The BSE realty index is the top loser, down 1% or 21 points at 2,016. Oil & gas, IT, consumer durables, metal, auto and healthcare indices are also down 0.4-1% each. The broader markets are also facing the heat of selling pressure. The BSE mid-cap index is down 0.4% at 6,581 and the small-cap index has shed 1% to 6,519 levels. The overall market breadth is negative as 1687 stocks are declining while 788 are advancing. Source: Business Standard


 

 

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