Nik's Diary
The Indian market opened in the green,
mirroring SGX Nifty which is trading marginally higher in the opening trades.
Other Asian markets have also opened in the green. The US markets extended the
trend seen over the past few sessions and the stocks turned in another
lackluster performance during trading on Wednesday. The major averages
eventually ended the day mixed for the second consecutive session. Meanwhile,
the European markets finished in positive territory on Wednesday. Investors
were encouraged by the slower pace of decline in Eurozone industrial production
and by retail sales data from the United States. Some better than expected
earnings data also provided a boost to investor sentiment Meanwhile Indian
shares rose modestly on Wednesday, paring early gains, with IT stocks leading
the gainers. The benchmark BSE Sensex ended the session up 47 points or 0.24%
at 19,608, while the broader Nifty index rose by 10 points or 0.18% to 5,933.
Trade deficit widens to US $20bn in
January 2013
Struggling to turn around an economy that
is slowing to its lowest growth rate in a decade, the Reserve Bank of India cut
interest rates by 0.25 percentage points last month, but warned that future
rate cuts would depend upon declines in both the current account deficit and
inflation.But there was little sign of any respite on the external front for
Asia's third largest economy in December as a surge in imports dwarfed a slight
improvement in exports.Exports rose an annual 0.8 percent to $25.59 billion in
January, the first time they have risen since the start of the fiscal year in
April last year, on the back of better sales of engineering goods, drugs and
gems.But imports rose 6 percent to $45.58 billion, according to a senior trade
ministry official, their highest ever monthly total. Imports of oil, the single
biggest item, rose 6.9 percent from a year ago to $15.9 billion."The oil
import bill is definitely a challenge, but for a growing economy, energy needs
have to be met," Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma told an
industry conference in Mumbai.The January trade deficit was the second worst on
record. The worst figure was $20.9 billion posted in October.Current account
data for the October-December quarter will be released at the end of next
month, but the deficit touched a record high in September at 5.4 percent of GDP
due to slowing exports and heavy oil and gold imports.
NEW PRESSURE ON THE RUPEE
The Reserve Bank of India is worried that
India's ability to fund its rising current account deficit is becoming increasingly
stretched, and could lead to fresh pressure on the rupee."The high current
account deficit is unsustainable as it can't be funded for a long time with
capital flows and it will get adjusted through the exchange rate," said A.
Prasanna, economist, ICICI Securities Primary Dealership. "The exchange
rate will depreciate when the correction happens."The rupee struck its
weakest in over a month in early January at 55.38 to the dollar, but has since
recovered on capital inflows. The rupee strengthened marginally to 53.84 to the
dollar after the data, as some traders had priced in an even wider trade
deficit.Exports between April and January fell 4.9 percent to $239.7 billion,
pushing the cumulative trade deficit for the first 10 months of the fiscal year
to $167.2 billion, up 8 percent on the same period a year earlier. Sluggish
demand from the United States and Europe has crimped India's
exports. Samiran Chakraborty, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in
Mumbai, said the trade deficit's deterioration in January was a concern, as it
would typically be expected to improve during the January-March quarter, but a
surge in gold imports in anticipation of a recent import duty may have been a
factor.The government did not detail imports of gold, usually the
second-biggest item.On Monday, Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao
reiterated concern over financing the current account deficit with volatile
capital flows. Portfolio inflows into India have been robust, with $8.34
billion so far this year after inflows of $31.41 billion in the whole of
2012. Subbarao projected a record high current account deficit for the
2012/13 fiscal year, ending in March. Many analysts expect the deficit to rise
from 4.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2011/12 to a record 4.5-5.0
percent of GDP for 2012/13. Source: Reuters
JLR posts strong growth in wholesale
sales in January 2013
Rising investment is eating into the
luxury carmaker's cash pile and raising the prospect of fresh borrowing, while
falling profitability is set to tip parent Tata Motors (TAMO.NS) into
a first drop in profits in five quarters. Increasing reliance on lower-margin
models such as the Land Rover Evoque and Freelander and adverse currency
movements will dent October-December results due later on Thursday, as JLR's
free cash flow (FCF) turned negative just months after it paid its weaker
parent a maiden dividend.Negative cash flow will continue in the next financial
year, JLR says, as the carmaker that has propped up its Indian owner for the
past 18 months starts a 2.75 billion pound a year splurge on its plants and
product pipeline. "Over the next couple of years, they are unlikely to
generate much cash. That's a worry," said Joseph George, analyst at IIFL
Institutional Equities in Mumbai, one of seven with a negative rating on the
stock, according to Thomson Reuters Starmine. "That's going to be a problem
for Tata." JLR had net cash of 437 million pounds at end-September, but as
it ploughs money into a new engine plant in Britain and a factory in China, it
will no longer be the cash-generating driver for its struggling owner, Asia's
7th-biggest carmaker by market value.
FUNDRAISER
JLR's cash was the primary reason behind
an improvement in Tata Motor's consolidated net adjusted debt to operating
EBITDA ratio to 0.98 in the year to last March from 1.21 in the previous year,
ratings agency Fitch said in a recent note. The storied British carmaker, which
makes sleek Jaguar saloons and rugged Land Rover SUVs, raised $500 million in
fresh debt last month and said it would raise funds from capital markets and
banks to fuel its capex as required. Over the past month, 18 analysts have cut
their Tata Motors annual earnings estimates by an average of 7.9 percent, six
have cut their stock price targets and three have downgraded the shares to a
'sell', according to Starmine. The carmaker's shares - valued at $16.5 billion
and India's best performing blue chip last year with a gain of over 70 percent
- have fallen 10 percent since hitting a record high in January 10, while the
NSE index has lost 1 percent. JLR contributed around 90 percent of Tata Motors'
net profit in the last financial year, so the UK unit's margins are more
closely watched by investors than those at Tata's domestic business. Tata has
used JLR's cash flows to service the debt raised to buy the British carmaker
for $2.3 billion in 2008. "Net debt levels will rise as both India and the
JLR business will be FCF negative," UBS Securities India wrote in a recent
note on Tata Motors.
MARGIN PRESSURE
Tata's turnaround of JLR through the worst
of the global financial crisis won it many plaudits, but plunging sales at its domestic
business in recent quarters has meant the subsidiary has largely carried its
parent. Analysts on average expect Tata Motors to post quarterly net profit of
28.9 billion rupees, according to Thomson Reuters Starmine, down 15 percent on
a year ago - and the first drop in profit since September 2011. Much of that is
down to a slide from JLR's blockbuster operating margins of more than 20
percent in the year-ago quarter, due in part to a shift towards less profitable
models. UBS expects JLR operating margins of 12.8 percent for October-December.
Nomura predicts 13-14 percent. JLR's operating margin has fallen year-on-year
in the past two quarters and stood at 14.8 percent at end-September. The
cheaper, lower-margin Evoque and Freelander compact sport utility vehicles
accounted for 52.5 percent of all Land Rover retail sales in the quarter, up
from 43.7 percent a year earlier, according to company data. Last month, the
two models made up 54.9 percent of all Land Rover retail sales, driving up
total JLR sales by almost a third, while, overall, Tata Motors' sales fell 16
percent - a third decline in as many months. The pound rose 0.7 percent against
the dollar during the quarter, denting profits earned in the United States.
North America made up around 17.8 percent of JLR's sales. In China, the world's
biggest autos market, JLR's sales jumped 71 percent last year, making it the
marque's No.2 market after Europe. The company is investing $1.7 billion with
local partner Chery Automotive to build a factory in China, where luxury car
sales are expected to continue posting double-digit growth. Source:
Reuters
Coal India - RU3QFY2013
Coal India (CIL) results came in above our
estimate on account of higher than expected sales volumes. Net sales grew
by 12.9% yoy to `17,325cr. Sales volumes grew by 9.2% yoy to 120mn tonnes
(our estimate of 112mn tonnes) indicating company’s focus on increasing
offtake. Railway rakes availability stood at 214/day (CIL’s requirements
currently stand at 234/day). Realizations grew by 3.4% yoy although flat
qoq to `1,439/tonne. However, EBITDA decreased by 7.8% yoy
to `5,195cr due to higher staff costs. Other income grew by 27.2% yoy to
`2,361. Consequently, net profit grew by 8.7% yoy to `4,395cr above
our estimate of `3,808cr. Source: Angel Broking
NMDC - RU3QFY2013
NMDC’s 3QFY2013 results were
weaker-than-expected due to lower-than expected sales volumes as well as
realizations. NMDC’s net sales fell by 27.5% yoy to `2,047cr (below our
estimates of `2,162cr) mainly due to lower volumes which declined 16.9% yoy to
5.32mn tonnes. Iron ore realizations also declined 13.1% yoy
to `3,820/tonne. EBITDA declined by 38.5% yoy to `1,390cr
and EBITDA margin contracted 1,218bp yoy to 67.9%. Other income grew by 5.9% yoy
to `556cr mainly due to higher cash balance. Consequently, net profit decreased
by 30.5% yoy to `1,292cr (below our estimate of `1,518cr). The company
had 5mn tonne of inventory as on December 31, 2013. It also reported that it
had a record production of 3mn tonne for January 2013. Source: Angel
Broking
TATA Steel - RU3QFY2013
Tata Steel reported disappointing set of
results for 3QFY2013 mainly due to weaker-than-expected profitability
performance from both its European and Indian operations. Its consolidated net
sales declined by 3.0% yoy to 32,107cr (below of our estimate of `38,228cr).
Consolidated steel sales volumes increased 3.6% yoy to 5.83mn tonnes. Its India
operations net sales grew by 12.8% yoy to `9,370cr due to higher sales volumes
(+16.6% yoy to 1.89mn tonnes). However, India operations EBITDA
decreased 1.1% yoy to `2,526cr mainly due to higher power and fuel cost and
freight costs during the quarter. India operations EBITDA/tonne decreased 15.2%
yoy to `13,366. On the international front, Tata Steel Europe’s (TSE) volumes
declined by 9.9% yoy to 3.02mn tonne. TSE reported an EBITDA/tonne for US$(26)
compared to a US$(44) in 3QFY2012 mainly due to lower realizations. The company
reported a consolidated adjusted net loss of `743cr vs. our estimate of a net
profit of `683cr. Consolidated net debt increased to `57,981cr as on
December 31, 2012, compared to `47,657cr as on March 31, 2012. In light
of lower-than-expected profitability for 3QFY2013, we are likely to lower our
profitability estimates for FY2013. Source: Angel Broking
JSW Steel - RU3QFY2013
JSW Steel reported consolidated 3QFY2013
results. Earlier, it had reported standalone results which were broadly in line
with our expectations. JSW Steel’s consolidated 3QFY2013 top line grew by 5.5%
yoy to `8,887cr. The company’s EBITDA was flat yoy at `1,330cr however, EBITDA
margin increased by 104bp yoy to 15.0%. The company reported exceptional item
related to forex loss of `268cr during the quarter. Interest expenses
grew by 36.4% yoy to `517cr and other income declined by 63.7% yoy to `8cr. The
company reported a share of loss from associate of `73cr and hence, adjusted
net profit (excluding exceptional items) decreased by 61.2% yoy to `214cr.
However the company reported a net loss of `74cr vs. a net loss of `48cr. Source:
Angel Broking
Madras Cements - RU3QFY2013
Madras Cements posted a 17.7% yoy growth
in top-line to `872cr, which was inline with estimates. We expect the top-line
growth to be on account of a reasonably strong growth on the volumes front. OPM
stood at 26.9% down by 107bp on yoy basis. Bottomline rose by 9.3% yoy to
`84cr. Source: Angel Broking
Comments
Post a Comment