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Fundamentals May 3, 2013

Nik's Diary The Indian markets opened flat today ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy meeting. We expect the RBI to reduce the repo rate by 25bp from 7.50% to 7.25%. Meanwhile, major Asian indices are trading in the green today following an interest rate cut by the ECB and better-than-expected US jobless claims data. The US markets ended in the green on Thursday with S&P 500 closing at a record high after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark interest rate and US jobless claims unexpectedly declined to a five-year low. The ECB in its policy meeting reduced its benchmark interest rates by 25bp to 0.50% and signaled that another reduction is possible if needed to revive the ailing economy. Meanwhile in the US, upbeat jobs data generated positive sentiments, as the Labor Department release showed that initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a five-year low in the week ended April 27th. The report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 324,000, a decrease o...

Fundamentals May 2, 2013

Nik's Diary The Indian markets open in the red tracking weak cues from SGX Nifty and major Asian markets following weaker than expected US payroll data and slowdown in the pace of growth in the US manufacturing sector. The US markets ended on a negative note on Wednesday as disappointing batch of US economic data weighed on the markets, prompting traders to indulge in profit booking. Sparking the negative sentiments, payroll processor ADP released a data showing that private sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs in April following a downwardly revised increase of 131,000 jobs in March. Economists were expecting an addition of about 155,000 jobs. Adding to the worries, the ISM report showed a slowdown in the pace of growth in the manufacturing sector in April. The purchasing managers index fell to 50.7 in April from 51.3 in March. Further, stocks saw continued weakness in afternoon trading following the Federal Reserve's announcement of its latest decision on moneta...

Fundamentals April 30, 2013

Nik's Diary The Indian markets opened in the green following strong start to SGX Nifty and major Asian indices after better-than-expected reading on US housing sales and amid speculation that central banks will continue the stimulation measures. The US markets ended on a positive note on Monday with S&P 500 closing at a record high as traders reacted positively to the latest batch of economic news. The strength on Wall Street reflected a positive reaction to a report from the National Association of Realtors showing a bigger than expected rebound in pending home sales in the month of March. The pending home sales index rose by 1.5% in March 2013 after falling by 1% in February 2013. A separate report from the Commerce Department showed that personal spending climbed 0.2% in March 2013 following a 0.7% increase in February 2013. Meanwhile in India, renewed hopes of an interest rate cut at the RBI's monetary policy meet that is scheduled on May 3 helped stocks close high...

Fundamentals April 29, 2013

Nik's Diary The Indian markets opened flat to positive mirroring flat opening trades in the SGX Nifty and most other Asian markets. The US markets showed a mixed performance on Friday on the back of disappointing data on 1QCY2013 economic growth and a mixed response to the latest batch of earnings. According to new government statistics, GDP expanded at a 2.5% (as against an expectation of 3.1%) annual rate in 1QCY2013, up 0.4% from 4QCY2012. Meanwhile, the European markets ended Friday's session in negative territory, snapping its recent upward trend. The pull back was largely attributed to profit taking following this week's strong run. The gains accumulated this week were largely due to speculation that the ECB will cut rates at its upcoming meeting next week. Meanwhile, Indian markets ended weak on Friday, as investors awaited cues from the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting due this week. A broaderrebound in commodities, the rupee's weakness o...

Fundamentals April 26, 2013

Nik's Diary The Indian markets opened flat mirroring flat opening trades in the SGX Nifty and mixed opening across major Asian bourses. The US markets moved mostly higher during trading on Thursday after ending the previous session roughly flat. The markets benefited from a positive reaction to the latest earnings news as well as some upbeat employment data. The Labor Department report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 339,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 355,000. Meanwhile, the European markets extended their recent upward trend to a fifth consecutive session on Thursday on expectations of rate cut by the ECB at their upcoming meeting next week. The better than expected British GDP result and the bigger than expected decline in U.S. jobless claims also contributed to the positive mood. Meanwhile, Indian markets edged sharply higher to a six-week high on Thursday, primarily lifted by aggressive buying in rate-sensitive stocks on...

Fundamentals April 25, 2013

Nik's Diary The Indian markets opened flat mirroring flat opening trades in the SGX Nifty and mixed opening across major Asian bourses. The US markets, after moving mostly higher over the course of the three previous sessions, showed a lack of direction throughout the trading session on Wednesday. The lackluster performance came as traders remained uncertain about the nearterm outlook for the markets. Meanwhile, the European markets extended their recent gains to a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday. The larger than expected decrease in German business confidence added to speculation that the ECB might cut rates in its upcoming meeting scheduled next week on Thursday. Meanwhile, Indian markets were closed yesterday on account of a holiday. On Tuesday, Indian markets reversed early losses to end largely unchanged ahead of the F&O expiry slated for Thursday. The Indian economy has bottomed out and growth will pick up to 6.4% in the current fiscal, PMEAC Chairman Rangara...

Fundamentals April 23, 2013

Nik's Diary The Indian markets opened flat to positive tracking flat opening in SGX Nifty and of major Asian markets. The US markets moved mostly higher over the course of the trading day on Monday, partly offsetting the steep losses that were posted last week. The upward move on the day reflected strong gains by technology and resource stocks. The major averages all ended the day in positive territory, although the Dow under performed its counterparts. The European markets pared their gains in late trade Monday, but still largely finished to the upside. The markets were positive in early trade, on the news that Italy's parliament re-elected President Giorgio Napolitano for a second term on Saturday. Meanwhile, Indian markets ended at a one month high. Continued expectations of a cut in key interest rates by the RBI helped to keep investor sentiments buoyant on Monday. With inflationary pressures easing and the rupee remaining more or less stable, most analysts expect th...