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Fundamentals May 3, 2013


Nik's Diary
The Indian markets opened flat today ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy meeting. We expect the RBI to reduce the repo rate by 25bp from 7.50% to 7.25%. Meanwhile, major Asian indices are trading in the green today following an interest rate cut by the ECB and better-than-expected US jobless claims data. The US markets ended in the green on Thursday with S&P 500 closing at a record high after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark interest rate and US jobless claims unexpectedly declined to a five-year low. The ECB in its policy meeting reduced its benchmark interest rates by 25bp to 0.50% and signaled that another reduction is possible if needed to revive the ailing economy. Meanwhile in the US, upbeat jobs data generated positive sentiments, as the Labor Department release showed that initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a five-year low in the week ended April 27th. The report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 324,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 342,000. Back home in India, the domestic markets rallied on Thursday, shrugging off weak global cues, in anticipation of a rate cut at the RBI policy meeting which is scheduled today. Globally, participants would also keep an eye on the US monthly employment report which will be release today. .

ECB cuts rates, RBI expected to reduce repo by 25bp
Responding to a drop in euro zone inflation well below its target level and rising unemployment, the ECB lowered its main rate by a quarter percentage point to a record low 0.50 percent. ECB President Mario Draghi, promising to provide as much liquidity as euro zone banks need well into next year and to help smaller companies get access to credit, also indicated that some policymakers had pushed for a bigger cut. "There was a very, very strong prevailing consensus towards an interest rate cut," he told a news conference after the ECB's Governing Council met in Bratislava. "Within that, there was a prevailing consensus for a cut of only 25 basis points." The ECB was also "technically ready" to cut its deposit rate from the current zero percent into negative territory, meaning it would start charging banks for holding their money overnight. Such a move could encourage the banks to lend out money rather than hold it at the ECB, though it would also probably have a big impact on banks' own operations and major implications for funding and bond markets. Draghi said the ECB could cope with these - a departure from his previous statements. "There are several unintended consequences that may stem from this measure," he said of a negative deposit rate. "We will address and cope with these consequences if we decide to act. And we will again look at this with an open mind and we stand ready to act if needed. "Thursday's cut in the main rate had been widely expected after Draghi said last month that the ECB stood ready to act, but few economists expect it to make a decisive difference. Acknowledging that, the ECB said it would prime banks with as much liquidity as they need until at least July 2014 and look at ways to boost lending to smaller companies, which are the lifeblood of Europe's economies but have been starved of credit in many countries. "Today's rate cut mainly provides support for peripheral banks and could boost confidence marginally," said ING economist Carsten Brzeski. QE AHEAD? Draghi stuck with the ECB's forecast that economic recovery will take hold later in the year but highlighted "downside risks" to that position. The ECB would "monitor very closely" all incoming evidence, Draghi said, a phrase which in the past has suggested further policy action to come. Safe haven German Bund futures hit a new record high as Draghi spoke and the euro fell. Unemployment hit a record high in March and annual inflation plunged to 1.2 percent in April, pressuring the ECB to cut rates this month to honour its mandate to deliver price stability, which it defines as inflation close to, but below 2 percent. The sudden slump in price pressures has also raised the possibility of the ECB having to look at policy tools beyond interest rates to counter any further slide in inflation. "Ultimately, we think the ECB will have to purchase private-sector assets in order to fix the transmission mechanism," said Andrew Bosomworth at PIMCO, the world's largest bond fund. Such asset purchases could take the ECB into the realm of quantitative easing (QE) - creating money to buy assets, a policy it has so far eschewed but which other major central banks have embraced. SMALL COMPANIES, BIG PROBLEM The ECB wants to improve the transmission of its monetary policy so its low rates reach all corners of the euro zone. The bloc's south is not benefiting to the same extent as the north from the ultra-low rates. If they are lending at all, banks there are charging companies and households more for loans than their peers in the north because of higher funding costs and credit risks. "There can't be fears of lack of funding as an excuse for not lending," Draghi said after the meeting in Bratislava, one of two that the ECB holds outside of Frankfurt each year. The ECB has repeatedly voiced its concern about the impact this has on lending to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which have little alternative to bank funding. The ECB wants to revive an asset class that has widely been blamed for causing the financial crisis - asset-backed securities (ABS). This asset class allows banks to pass at least some of the credit risk on to other investors as they try to boost their capital and liquidity buffers to adapt to new regulatory standards - one reason for their reluctance to lend. "The Governing Council decided to start consultations with other European institutions on initiatives to promote a functioning market for asset-backed securities," Draghi said, adding that no decisions had been taken. Berenberg Bank's Holger Schmieding said that if other institutions, such as the European Investment Bank, helped promote an ABS market for SME loans, the ECB could eventually pave a way to some quantitative easing. The ECB could accept such packaged loans as collateral at its liquidity operations, or even buy them outright, he said. "If so, this would extend the ECB's toolbox and could potentially open the way for a little 'quantitative easing' by the ECB later on," Schmieding added. Source: reuters

Cabinet approves FM radio phase 3 e-auctions
The Cabinet has cleared the way for as many as 839 new FM radio channels to go on air in nearly 300 cities later this year. These channels are to be awarded in the third phase of expansion of FM Radio, the guidelines for which were approved at the Cabinet meeting on Wednesday. The third round of expansion has been delayed for nearly two years, as the telecom scam cast a cloud over the process of allocation of natural resources such as radio spectrum. The Cabinet accepted the recommendations of an Empowered Group of Ministries on changes to be followed in the auction process. The Information and Broadcasting Ministry expects to rake in around Rs 1,532 crore from the auction of new radio channels. The Ministry expects to complete the auctions this financial year. It has also been decided to charge a fee from existing operators migrating from Phase II to Phase III. The migration fee will be decided after consultation with the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI). The Cabinet had given its nod to conduct the auction of 839 channels in 294 cities in March last year, which will extend FM radio coverage to all cities with over 1 lakh population. Subsequently, TRAI recommended auctioning of additional frequency to be opened up by reducing the inter-channel spacing. The Cabinet has now said that additional channels that will be available by reducing the inter-channel spacing to 400 kHz could be considered after feasibility studies are completed. Source: hinduabusinessline

CG signs JV for setting up switch gear manufacturing plant in Indonesia 
Avantha Group Company Crompton Greaves Ltd and PLNE (PT Prima Layanan Nasional Enjinring) have signed a joint venture agreement to manufacture and commercialize High Voltage (HV) and Extra High Voltage (EHV) switchgear in Indonesia. PLNE is an engineering company owned by PLN (Perusahaan Listrik Negara), an Indonesian government-owned Sole Electricity Utility Company. The joint venture will be owned 51% by CG and 49% by PLNE and will be a part of CG's global organisation. The JV includes a technology transfer by CG over a period of five years for the production of the entire range of switchgear for the network - from 70kV to 500kV - and will be localized through CG‘s new manufacturing base in Indonesia. Production is expected to commence in 24 months. The focus of the collaboration is to enhance the sustainable operation of the entire transmission and distribution grid in Indonesia. CG's equipment portfolio will also include the production of HV and EHV Switchyard equipment, the range of SF6 Circuit Breakers, Current Transformers, Inductive Voltage Transformers, Capacitor Voltage Transformers and Lightning Arresters. The products manufactured in the new facility in Indonesia will be distributed through CG's marketing network in the South-East Asian markets and the Pacific Region. CEO and Managing Director, Laurent Demortier of Avantha Group Company CG said, "This joint venture is an important milestone in CG's expansion strategy. We are very proud to team up with PLNE to set up a state-of-the-art manufacturing base in Indonesia. We believe our collaboration will allow the development of a new series of products well-suited for the Indonesian and South East Asian markets" CG has been committed to the Indonesian market since 1992 and has been a preferred local and principal manufacturer of power transformers - with an installed capacity of 10,000 MVA per annum in Indonesia. Indonesia is the fastest growing economy, with a GDP close to a trillion US$. The installed generation capacity of Indonesia is expected to double to 84 GW by 2020. The estimated market base of HV and EHV switchgear equipment in South-East Asia and the Pacific Region is predicted to exceed $500 million in the coming years. Shares of Crompton Greaves Ltd was last trading in BSE at Rs.93.20, up by Rs.0.85 or 0.92%. The stock hit an intraday high of Rs.94 and low of Rs.91.25. The total traded quantity was 0.95 lakhs compared to 2 week average of 1.52 lakhs. Source: EquityBulls

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