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Nifty Analysis, July 01, 2015


Before coming to the answer you are looking forward to let me explain you the current short term Nifty analysis. This is what I regularly do on this blog.

 The stage is set for a perfect fight between the bulls and the bears. Nifty for the past 3 weeks has shown a robust and strong rally. Global crises have also been taken good care by the Indian benchmark. The fear of a negative Greek impact reflected in a recent sell out during the initial Monday trade this week, however soon the news was discounted for and markets again started following the trended path.I somehow feel that the Greek impact has too little to effect our fundamentals and would not matter much except that it may act as a trigger for Nifty to initiate a minor wave to the downside,

At current juncture, Nifty faces a stiff resistance, at 8580 levels which also embarks 61.2% retrenchment  levels of its previous corrective phase. 

It is assumed that Nifty is currently forming a complex wave pattern which historically suggest the consolidation phase. It is further assumed that Nifty is currently forming its "B" wave to the upside with the maximum upper limit of 8750. Any movement above these levels may be marked as a clear trend. To the downside Nifty may hold its fort at 7800 levels which has successfully been proven a strong and robust support zone.If we talk about the over all market structure, Nifty's primary trend remains intact and is bound to complete its cycle in another 18-24 months. It is somewhat imminent to see Nifty touching its previous highs or making new ones. As the bulls turns into bears, there are people who hope and pray that the trend should continue to the upside. Often, professional wait for such people to become bearish, exit their long positions and stop trading or investing. It is then, when the professional bulls reenter the markets.

Patience is the name of the game.

It is advisable to strictly follow a well chalked out trading plan, buying the quality stocks at the right time or situation and wait patiently till you achieve your targets and not to mention, never forget your stop losses. Consider this a right time to accumulate stocks and build up the portfolio. Right stocks include stocks with strong balance sheets, pedigree management, considerate directorship and of course correct fundamentals There should be no rush to go all in, however one may consider an investment plan where you are putting some money in your broking account and making sure that you buy a good quality stock every month for the next 18 months.

For another 2 years I don't see any asset class performing well than capital markets. Its a part of an economic cycle. 

It is expected that retail participation in capital markets shall increase many folds in coming years. Reason is simple. Soon the retailers would realize the liquidity crunch in heavenly considered property asset class. Sometimes, I even go to an extent where I imagine the property bubble bursting due to the way property transactions take place. Its not always the credit or leverage that is mother of all evil, there are other factors evil enough. Crude has touched its long time low, and with huge oil reserve with the OPEC cartel and also with the U.S, the chances for the black gold to enter a new primary uptrend is  very very bleak. Supply factor is too big for demand to handle when it comes to world oil. Another factor is of course can not be ignored is "The Modi" factor. He is bringing all the necessary ingredients which are required to lay a strong foundation for a robust and enduring growth. He is up to something. I personally feel that he is the right man to be entrusted upon and can perfectly realize our potential into growth, happiness, and prosperity.


For advise on model portfolio, feel free to contact us at enquiry@ndpms.in. 











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