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IIP disappoints at 2.0% in Sept 2013, CPI Inflation at 10.1% in Oct 2013

As per Quick Estimates on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), industrial growth in September 2013 reported growth of 2.0% as compared to marginal 0.4% in the previous month and a contraction of 0.7% in September 2012. The industrial production for September 2013 surprised negatively by coming in much lower than market expectations of 3.5% growth owing to disappointing manufacturing sector data. In terms of sector-wise classification, the Electricity sector reported robust 12.9% growth as compared to 7.2% in the previous month and 3.9% in September 2012. The growth in electricity production (owing mainly to thermal production) has supported the overall index by contributing 1.2% to the overall headline growth print. Going ahead in October 2013 however, owing to the high base during the corresponding month of the previous year, electricity production is likely to clock a modest growth. The Mining sector reported 3.3% growth after 11 straight months of contraction boosted mainly by the strong growth in coal production during the month. It compares with 1.0% decline in August 2013 and 2.2% growth in September 2012. The Manufacturing sector reported a slight growth of 0.6% despite a 1.6% contraction in September 2012 and compares with 0.2% degrowth in the previous month. As per the use-based classification, Capital Goods index posted a 6.8% contraction in spite of a steep 13.3% de-growth in the corresponding month of the previous year. But on a positive note, production in basic and intermediate goods has gained traction and going ahead could possibly support the investment cycle. Consumer durables production continued to decline for the tenth straight month and weighed on production. At the same time, Consumer non-durables continued to support performance and hence overall consumer goods production came in at 0.6%. CPI inflation during October 2013 inched upwards to 10.1%, a seven month high, as compared to 9.8% in September 2013. The rise can be attributed to both elevated food as well as core CPI inflation. Food prices accelerated by 12.6% from 11.4% in September 2013 and going ahead some respite on this front is likely as high vegetable inflation ebbs.  Source: Angel Broking

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