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Fundamentals May 14, 2013

Nik's Diary
The Indian markets opened flat today with a positive bias tracking positive opening in SGX Nifty which is trading higher by 0.24%. Most of the Asian markets too are trading in the green. US markets showed a lack of direction on Monday after moving modestly lower in early trading. Upbeat retail sales data released by the commerce department helped to limit the early downside. The Commerce Department said retail sales inched up by 0.1% in April following a revised 0.5% decrease in March. The modest increase in retail sales surprised economists, who had expected it to dip by 0.3%. The European markets which got off to a weak start to the new trading week, due to the weaker than expected Chinese industrial production data, pared their losses in the afternoon, following the better than expected U.S. retail sales report.Meanwhile India’s key benchmark indices slumped after the latest data released by Commerce Ministry showed that the country's trade deficit widened in April 2013.The monthly trade deficit widened to USD17.8bn in April, from USD10.3bn in March and USD14.1bn in April 2012. The markets would keenly observe monthly WPI data to be released during the day.

CPI inflation falls to a 13-month low at 9.4% in April 2013
The 2013-14 financial year began with easing of price pressure as the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation fell to a 13-month low of 9.39% in April against 10.39% in the previous month. After four months, the CPI-based inflation came back to a single digit, official data showed today. In both urban areas as well as rural parts, the inflation (base-2010) was in a single digit with the rate of price rise standing at 9.73% in the former and 9.16% in the latter. However, rural areas saw inflation coming down to 13-month low, and urban areas to five-month bottom. Inflation in food and beverages still stood in double digits. But it moved down to 10.61% in April from 12.42% in March. Vegetables saw huge decline in the rate of price rise. The food category has the highest weight of over 45% in CPI, and hence the downward pressure was seen in the overall inflation. The food and beverages inflation stood at 10.94% in urban areas and 10.53% in rural areas. Vegetables saw considerable decline in inflation. It fell to 5.43% in April from a whopping 12.16%. Urban areas saw inflation in these items coming down to 3.84% from 7.70%, while rural areas witnessed 7.70% against 14.01%. However, analysts said it is too early to establish a trend in vegetables or overall food inflation. The period during the rainy season may again see spike in food inflation, they said. The often-cited example of protein based items exerting upward pressure on inflation by the Reserve Bank of India continued to be true, though the pressure came down a bit. Egg, fish and meat saw inflation falling to 13.60 from 14.36%. Pulses went down to 10.39% from 11.38%. 

In fact, clothing bedding and foot ware was also in double digits at 10.22% against 10.64% in March. However, the category saw inflation falling to single digit at 9.79% in April in urban areas against 10.05% in March. In rural areas, the inflation in these items fell to 10.43%, against 11.03%. Fuel and light remained in single digit and fell to 8.10% against 8.31%. In urban areas, the fall was steeper at 8.87% from 9.55%, while in rural areas it rather rose to 7.71%   from 7.57%. With industrial growth recovering a bit in March at 2.5% growth against 0.5% in the previous month. If the trend of falling inflation and rising growth continues, some green shoots of recovery could be visible in the macro economy. However, economists said the recovery may be gradual and may pick up from the second half onwards. Source: Business Standard




Punj Lloyd wins `730cr order from ONGC
Leading infrastructure firm Punj Lloyd Monday said it has bagged an order worth Rs 730 crore from ONGC for executing a sub-sea pipeline project at Bombay High oil field. "Punj Lloyd has bagged the B-127 Cluster Pipeline Project in Mumbai from Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (ONGC), emerging as the lowest bidder for an amount of Rs 730 crore for the price bid which opened on April 25, 2013," the company said in a statement. It added that the scope of project includes detailed engineering design, surveys, procurement, fabrication, load out, transportation, installation, pre-commissioning and commissioning of 115.50 km rigid submarine pipelines in nine segments. Commenting on the order, Punj Lloyd's Director P K Gupta said: "The project requires meticulous planning and synchronisation due to its complex arrangement and challenging time frame. We have bagged this order amidst stiff competition and will ensure delivery to the clients' satisfaction." The project needs to be completed by May 2014, the company said. Before this order, Punj Lloyd's order backlog stood at Rs 22,499 crore. According to Punj Lloyd, ONGC's B-127 cluster comprises three marginal fields -- B-127, B-157 and B-59 located North of Mukta and additional development of B-55 Field of Bassein and satellite asset in Bombay Offshore Bassein, with significant hydrocarbon accumulations in multi-layered reservoirs within the Bassein and Mukta formations. The B-127 cluster development has an estimated cumulative production of 1.836 million tonne of oil and 2.093 billion cubic metre of gas over a ten-year period and the additional development of B-55 envisages production of 0.155 million tonne oil and 2.583 billion cubic metre gas over 13 years. In past, Punj Lloyd has executed several offshore pipelines projects for ONGC including the Uran Trombay Gas Pipeline and the Uran Trombay Jawahardeep Pipeline, and the prestigious Heera Redevelopment Project, the company said. For the fiscal year ended March, 2013, Punj Lloyd had reported a consolidated net loss of Rs 7 crore. Shares of the company were quoting at Rs 53.70 apiece on the BSE at 1415 hours, down 0.92 percent from the previous close. Source: Zeenews



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