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Fundamentals March 5, 2013


Nik's Diary
The Indian market opened in the green today mirroring positive opening trades in the SGX Nifty and most of the Asian markets. Also, Finance Minister P Chidambaram’s promise to take a relook at a clutch of proposals pertaining to indirect taxes in the budget is expected to cheer the markets. US market stocks rebounded from early losses on Monday to finish the session with modest gains. The weakness came in due to worries about China and about the ongoing impact of the budget sequester. European shares fell on Monday, mirroring weakness across Asia as China's service sector data missed estimates and US budget cuts of about USD85bn kicked in, threatening the fragile US economic recovery. Meanwhile Indian markets edged lower, mirroring weakness in Asian and European equities as US budget cuts kicked in and data out of the euro zone and China underlined concerns over the global economic outlook.

Sequester, debt ceiling issues to be eyed
There is a lot of talk about the sequester this week, but most of it is between people trying to figure out the big question: What is a sequester?
According to the Huffington Post, the sequester is a set of automatic spending cuts put into law by the Budget Control Act. Well, what’s that? It’s a piece of legislation that raised the debt ceiling and sought to apply pressure on Congress to come up with a longer term plan for deficit reduction. Sort of like a kid calling a bluff and dad sending him out to the street corner in a shirt that says, “I’m a brat” while taking money out of everyone’s wallet.
When does it start?
It already has. On 11:59 on March 1, the sequester went into effect to cut billions from the budget, and will be completely in effect within 30 days.
Who will feel it?
Pretty much everyone in some way will feel this. $550 billion will be directly from the military, taking away money for national security and military operations. Other places that are going to see deep cuts are non-profit organizations, food safety, mental health, small business growth, STOP Violence against Women program, Nutrition assistance for seniors, Customs and border patrol, scientific research programs, unemployment benefits, work study jobs, law enforcement, disaster relief, education, health care, job search and assistance, vaccines for children, public health, aviation safety, aviation security, emergency responders, oil and gas permitting, economic development, national parks, Title I education funds, special education, veteran’s programs, Social Security, national assistance for women, infants, and children, child care subsidies, rental assistance, homelessness programs, substance abuse services, protection for clean air and clean water, AIDS and HIV treatment and prevention, tribal services, head start, and more.
Who will not feel it?
No one. Everyone will feel it in one way or another. The $1.2 trillion in budget cuts would be spread over nine years and are equally divided between domestic and defense-related spending. During the remainder of the 2013 fiscal year, $85 billion worth of cuts are set to go into effect. The budget cuts would end in 2021.
Why is this happening?
In 2011, the debt ceiling was raised. Republicans demanded budget cuts to be included. The Congress Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (otherwise called the super committee in charge of figuring out how to implement the cuts called for in the Budget Control Act) couldn’t come to an agreement to cut $1.2 trillion from the budget. The sequester was supposed to be the worst case scenario to motivate Congress to figure something out. They failed, so here we are.
Can this be undone?
The Democrats and Republicans have to agree on a plan.
What can we do?
Come together to be heard. Let your state representatives, congressman, and anyone else who will listen know what programs are the most important to you and why. Don’t stop making noise. Education is already struggling to survive, and classrooms can’t afford to be any fuller. Programs like music and drama may have to find alternate funding through the community. Start attending your child’s Parent Teacher Student Organization meetings and become part of the solution. Plan accordingly with your finances. Strive to become debt free so that you can afford to survive deep cuts. Become an asset in your workplace. Be proactive in seeking solutions with the cards the government deals. Be heard. Source: Examiner

Defence Ministry clears RIL’s two blocks
The defence ministry has allowed Reliance Industries (RIL) to carry out exploration in the gas producing KG-D6 block and the discovery area of NEC-25 in the Bay of Bengal, subject to certain conditions. These two blocks were among the seven that were declared as “no-go” zones by the ministry on the grounds that they overlapped with a proposed naval base and were close to missile launching and Air Force exercise area. Official sources said the blocks belonging to RIL got conditional relief, but the ministry did not permit exploration or production in the blocks owned by Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, BG Group of the UK and Cairn India. Reliance and its partner BP have announced an investment of $5 billion over the next three to five years to boost gas output from the KG basin, which has dipped to 19.4 million metric standard cubic metres (mmscmd) of gas per day because of geological complexities. Oil ministry officials expressed hope that the differences regarding other blocks would be resolved soon. In January, the newly formed cabinet committee on investment had asked the ministries of defence and petroleum to sort out their differences over the seven blocks within a month and for another 32 areas in three months. Official sources said 30 per cent of the 7,645-square-kilometre KG-D6 block overlapped with the Navy’s firing and exercise areas. The defence ministry said exploration and production near its naval base would hamper surveillance. RIL agreed to relinquish 495 sq km in the no-go area, following which the Navy agreed to realign the boundary required for its proposed base and allowed oil and gas activities in the rest of the block. About 60-70 per cent of the NEC-25 block fell within 50 km of the Chandipur missile launch pad and about 50 per cent of the block was in the Balasore air-to-air firing range of the Indian Air Force. The defence ministry cleared the block on the condition that a 100km radius from the integrated test range at Chandipur will be under the no-go zone. Source: TelegraphIndia

Tata Motors slashes prices of its passenger cars by up to `50,000
Tata Motors on Monday slashed prices of its Indica and Manza range of passenger cars by up to Rs 50,000 in order to prevent falling sales in recent months. The company, however, increased the prices of its sports utility vehicle range, comprising Sumo, Safari and Aria, by up to Rs 35,000 following the excise duty hike in the Budget. “We have cut prices of Indica and Manza cars as we want to boost the morale of customers to give them a value proposition and make it more attractive to improve weak market sentiments,” a Tata Motors spokesperson said. The company has reduced the rates between Rs 29,000 and Rs 50,000 with immediate effect, the spokesperson added. Source: DeccanChronicle

Talks between Hero MotoCorp and workers ends inconclusive
With pay rise talks between management and workers at Hero MotoCorp’s Gurgaon factory making no progress on Monday, heads of the staff union hinted at a “hard decision” tomorrow. The state government’s labour department took an initiative in on Monday’s talks, trying to broker a settlement, to no avail. Bhim Rao, general secretary, Hero MotoCorp Workers’ Union (HMCWU), said , “The labour authorities held separate meetings with the workers and the management on Monday. But the company is refusing to budge from their stance. We have a meeting with other union leaders of the Gurgaon belt tomorrow. A hard decision has to be taken.” Sources indicated calling for a ‘bandh’ (stoppage of work) in the Gurgaon region was a possibility. The five union representatives at the Gurgaon unit had last week gone on a four-day hunger strike to press the workers’ demands. The strike was called off yesterday, after intervention from other trade union leaders in the region. A demonstration was held on Monday outside Gurgaon’s administrative centre, the Mini Secretariat, and a fresh charter of demands for government intervention given to the district’s sub-divisional magistrate. Workers at the Gurgaon unit have been agitating for about two months, sporting black armbands and not taking the subsidised tea and snacks offered by the company. The employees want a pay rise of Rs 15,000 a month, spread over three years. The management is reluctant to go beyond a rise of Rs 7,500-9,000 a month. Talks have been on for six months. In January, workers at Gurgaon were reported to have slowed production operations and showcause notices were issued to six members of the union, asking why action should not be taken against them for disrupting output. The workers also held a ‘gate meeting’ on February 12, where a strike was discussed as a final resort. The meeting was attended by members of the CITU, INTUC and AITUC worker bodies, beside union members from the factories of Maruti Suzuki and Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India. Hero MotoCorp has a factory each at Gurgaon, Dharuhera (both in Haryana) and Hardwar. The Gurgaon unit rolls out 6,000-7,000 two-wheelers daily. The company employs around 1,200 permanent workers and 4,000 contract workers at Gurgaon. The average salary of a permanent worker at Gurgaon is around Rs 32,000 a month. Source: Business Standard


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