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Fundamentals February 22, 2013


Nik's Diary
The Indian market opened on a weak note tracking negative cues from SGX Nifty which is trading lower. A majority of the Asian indices too are trading in the red following data points from Europe that signal that the region’s recession is deepening, and on concerns that China will do more to control economic growth. The US market ended lower as traders continued to cash in on the recent strength in the markets, which lifted the major indices to multi-year highs. The concerns about the outlook for monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve also weighed on stocks along with the disappointing reports on weekly jobless claims and Philadelphia manufacturing activity. According to the Labor Department report, initial jobless claims climbed to 362,000 in the week ended February 16th vs expectations of 359,000. Separately, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve report stated that the regional manufacturing activity fell to a negative 12.5 in February from a negative 5.8 in January. However, the National Association of Realtors released a report showing that existing home sales saw a modest rebound (up 0.4%) in January 2013. Back home in India, markets suffered their biggest losses in seven months on Thursday amid a global sell-off, after  minutes from the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting stoked concerns the central bank may scale back its bond-buying program sooner rather than later. Going ahead, market participants would keep an eye on the proceedings in the Budget session.

Markets impacted by unfavorable global cues  
Equity indices plunged to near two-month lows on Thursday as global markets nose-dived on concerns related to the continuance of quantitative easing in the US, which, along with the European Union, is battling disappointing economic data. Benchmark indices posted their biggest single-day fall in nearly seven months even though foreign institutional investors bought shares worth over $220 million, taking the year-to-date tally to over $8.1 billion. The Sensex slid 1.62% or 317.39 points to close at 19,325.36, while the broader Nifty declined 1.53% or 90.80 points to settle at 5,852.25 points. The broader markets also witnessed a sharp correction, with the BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices losing nearly 1.7% each. Even before Thursday’s fall, the markets had been weak despite FII flows being double the levels seen in the corresponding period of 2012 (see graph). The Sensex has barely budged this year compared to the sharp move of 18% seen in 2012. Asian indices like Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, China’s Shanghai Composite and South Korea’s Kospi lost 1-3% on similar concerns of liquidity tightening in the US and China. Most European indices such as the UK’s FTSE 100, France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX were down nearly 2% at the time of going to press. The markets turned jittery as minutes from the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealed that “many” members were concerned about the costs and risks of further asset purchases. Further, US housing starts for the month of January fell sharply below expectations. In Europe, services and manufacturing contracted in February at a much faster rate than expected. Analysts stated that it was a bad day for global equities and investors needed a reason to correct. “I am a little less worried about the US Fed minutes. The US markets came off five-year highs and there is nothing bad about a healthy correction. The same is true for the Indian markets. We have had a great run from September to January and we do not foresee any change in fundamentals. We do not hear any alarm bells are not ringing as of now,” said Andrew Holland, CEO, Ambit Investment Advisory. According to a research head and market strategist of a US-based financial services group, Thursday’s fall in Indian equities had no domestic context. “It was an overnight risk off and bad economic data. In such a scenario, it is going to be hard for central banks in the US and EU to pull out liquidity support. The dollar would strengthen and worsen the situation in global equities. It is not an easy decision to pull out monetary easing,” he said on condition of anonymity. Market watchers said the sharp correction ahead of the Union Budget would leave some room for upside. Historically, markets have corrected after the budget and the chances of positive surprises are more, they explained. Shares of metals, banking, and real estate companies were among the worst hit, while all main sectors finished in negative territory. Market breadth was weak, too, with nearly 2,000 stocks losing ground as against only 904 gainers. Source: FinancialExpress

GSM subscribers’ addition in January 2013 stood at 0.4mn
Idea added the highest number of subscribers in January at 2.5 million. The company also has the best visitor location register (VLR) ratio in the industry. Airtel followed by adding 2.3 million subscribers while Vodafone added a marginal 0.2 million. These three operators were the only incumbents to see substantial growth in their subscriber base. "We believe with stricter TRAI norms in place and reduction of free/discounted minutes by operators, the growth in subscriber base would be largely active,'' said ICICIdirect. The addition of subscribers by incumbents post adherence to stricter KYC norms by TRAI is a positive sign as majority of the subscribers added are expected to be active. Also, with  incumbents reducing free/discounted minutes, an ARPM expansion for the industry is in sight, it said. The Telecom Commission has recommended that operators with BWA spectrum in 2300 MHz be permitted to offer voice along with data services for a payment of license fees of Rs 16.50 billion. This move would be beneficial for Reliance Infocomm, which has pan-India BWA spectrum. However, this move could attract litigation from otsher operators as at the time of BWA spectrum auctions, the spectrum was only allowed to be used for data. Now with voice being allowed, the spectrum would be considerably cheaper than 3G spectrum. ''Any competition from Reliance in the voice market would be a risk to our call of ARPM expansion for the industry and an expected industry wide tariff hike to combat the spectrum related outgo for all operators. We maintain our target price of Rs 385, Rs 120 and Rs 69 on Bharti, Idea and RCom and rate them as strong BUY, HOLD and HOLD, respectively,''' it added.  Source: Myiris

ABB - RU3QFY2013
For 4QCY2012, ABB India’s (ABB) top-line and bottom-line performance was below our expectations. Top-line declined by 5.3% yoy to  `2,082cr, mainly on account of an 18% yoy decline in revenues from the power system segment to `599cr. ABB's operating margins continue to remain under pressure, coming in at 3.2%, due to lower margins in power systems and the process automation segment. Cost over-runs due to project delays and delay in payment of receipts have resulted in margin erosion. Consequently, ABB's bottom-line sharply declined yoy to  `17cr (against  `64cr in 4QCY2011). Source: Angel Brokimg

Gujarat Gas - RU3QFY2013
Gujarat Gas reported its 4QCY2012 results. The company’s top line increased 17.9% yoy to `756cr mainly on account of higher realization partially offset by lower volumes. Natural gas volume sold declined by 14.4% yoy to 270mmscm during the quarter. The decline was mainly in the industrial PNG segment. The company’s cost of goods sold increased by only 5.7% yoy to `603cr. Hence, EBITDA grew by 385.7% yoy to `108cr aided by lower other expenses and muted staff costs. Other income declined by 47.0% yoy to `10cr. Consequently company’s net profit grew by 187.5% yoy to `69cr. The company stated that it has received the sanction of the PNGRB to lay city gas distribution pipelines in Surat, Bharuch and Ankleshwar.  Source: Angel Brokimg

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